Around the world, and especially in the West, birthrates have been in decline. Contrary to the gloom and doom voices of last century, the problem we face is not a population explosion, but a population implosion. Demographic trends are now a real worry for most governments. Consider a few fast facts:
-The current global population is 8.2 billion people.
-It takes 2.1 births per woman to maintain replacement levels.
-The current global fertility rate is 2.2 births per woman, down from around 5 in the 1960s.
-The global fertility rate is expected to keep declining, with the replacement level being reached in 2050 and falling further to 1.8 births per woman in 2100.
-A main way that so many nations are trying to deal with lowering birthrates is to rely on immigration to offset this decline.
All of this means major problems. We have a birth dearth, while our aging populations continue to mushroom. Simply trying to figure out who will pay for the pensions for the elderly with fewer and fewer new people coming on the scene and entering the workplace is just one of the problems that nations now have to deal with.
And failed multiculturalism policies also contribute to the problem. Relying on immigration only works if the arriving masses seek to fit in. But in so many places, large numbers of migrants do not seek to assimilate and embrace the values and beliefs of the host nation. That leads to all sorts of social division and turmoil, as we are seeing in so many nations, be it England, or Germany, or Australia, etc.
So seeking to get birthrates back up is a better way to proceed in most cases. Consider these three countries and what they are seeking to do about these issues – or are not doing.
America
The current birth rate in the US is 1.66 births per woman, well below replacement level. Recently there has been talk of a baby bonus to help encourage women to have more babies. President Trump has said that he is supportive of such an idea. One report puts it this way:
The White House has been exploring ideas to encourage more Americans to have children, including a “baby bonus” payment of $5,000, according to reports. The New York Times reported that policy experts and advocates of boosting the birth rate have been meeting with White House aides to present proposals on how to increase the U.S. birth rate, which is currently in decline.
The proposals now have allies in the U.S. administration, the Times said, citing unnamed sources, although no decision has been made. When contacted by Newsweek for comment, the White House said that President Donald Trump is “proudly implementing policies to uplift American families.” As birth rates in the United States have been falling over the last decade and a half, the White House has been hearing how to encourage Americans to get married and have more children, according to the report.
This is a sign that the Trump administration will back an agenda from many of its allies on the right to reverse declining birthrates and promote conservative family values, the New York Times added. The NYT reported that the White House has been hearing a “chorus” of ideas to persuade Americans to get married and have more children. https://www.newsweek.com/trump-bonus-birth-rate-2062569
Hungary
Hungary is another nation that has been struggling in this area, and it is seeking to turn things around. One article says this about the European situation:
Amid the rapidly falling birth rates that are hitting Europe, which has decided to not boost these rates, but instead brings in millions of immigrants to secure its short-term future, Hungary, for its part, has chosen a different path.
It can be said that Europe is in the midst of demographic suicide, in other words, a programmed disappearance linked to an ideology rooted in the materialism and individualism that now characterizes much of European society. The destruction of the family and the abandonment of religion are largely responsible for this race to the abyss.
The figures speak for themselves: according to Eurostat, the birth rate in the European Union (EU) has been declining since 2008, with no EU country reaching the replacement level (2.12 children per woman), and the continent’s median age continues to rise steadily. In 2023, it reached 44.7 years.
For decades, more Europeans have died than were born, and millions of migrants continue to arrive. But nothing seems able to awaken the Old Continent from its lethargy. Any sensible leader should consider encouraging the birth rate and stop destroying the family. But that would defy the dominant ideological tenet in Europe, which promotes precisely the opposite.
It goes on to discuss what Hungary is trying to do:
But some countries refuse to lower their flags. Thus, Hungary has used the last decade to implement ambitious family policies, investing 5% of its GDP to reverse the demographic suicide that threatened it. The goal is clear: to ensure that starting a family is not a disadvantage, to place mothers at the center of the game, and to reward marital stability.
Since 2010, the government has introduced a series of measures that have reversed what seemed an irreversible demographic decline. After years of free-fall (from 2.25 children per woman in 1980 to 1.2 in 2010), the birth rate rose to 1.6 in 2020 and has stabilized at 1.55. During the same period, divorce and abortion rates have declined significantly.
The Hungarian government has just doubled down on its commitment to increasing birth rates with a series of new measures, the most notable of which is a “revolutionary” tax exemption: mothers with two or more children will be exempt from income tax for life. This benefit previously only applied to mothers of four children. This considerable expansion should provide a decisive boost to birth rates. In the coming months, Hungary will become a kind of tax haven for families, especially mothers. https://fsspx.news/en/news/hungary-country-seeking-raise-its-birth-rate-51582
In a piece in the Weekend Australian several years ago, Greg Sheridan said this about the Hungarian situation:
The Hungarian government devotes substantial resources to encouraging its citizens to have children. It has succeeded in lifting the birthrate. It in effect pays women money to stay home with their kids. This outrages international feminist consciousness and some versions of liberal capitalism that are determined that every woman should work in paid employment outside the home all the time, whether she wants to or not.
And he shared a line from Tony Abbott:
Orban has secured Hungary’s borders, massively boosted its prosperity and stood up to the woke EU in support of his country’s cultural priorities. That looks like a pretty successful government and political movement to me. As for the ‘authoritarian’ tag, it’s hard to see the justification given that Hungary has free elections, a free press and an independent judiciary. I suspect he’s only described that way because he’s a successful conservative.
Australia
Currently Australia has the lowest birthrate on record. In 2023 the total fertility rate was 1.50. Since the 1970s we have had below replacement rates. Recall that back in 2004 the then-treasurer Peter Costello pushed a $3000 lump sum baby bonus to push up Australia’s declining birthrate. As he quipped at the time, “Have one for Mum, one for Dad, and one for the country.”
And it did indeed work for a while. At the time of his policy announcement, the fertility rate was about 1.7 babies born per woman. It grew to a three-decade high of 2.02 in 2008. Now, as mentioned, we are even lower than back in 2004. So we may well need another such policy to turn things around.
As with so many other countries, reliance on mass immigration is the main means to try to prevent population decline from continuing. Under the Albanese government some 1.1 million migrants have entered Australia in two years. While they tend to get looked after pretty well, regular Australians are feeling the pinch with a big housing crisis.
Instead of flooding the country with migrants, we should seek for a slower and more sustained population increase of Australians. Whether another Costello-type plan is the way to go remains to be seen. But things here and elsewhere are simply not working out very well.
How Civilizations Die: (And Why Islam Is Dying Too)by Goldman, David (Author)
Is there a will to keep living?
Individual nations will have to look at various options to turn things around, whether it is trying the sorts of things Hungary is doing, or something else. But a nation that does not seek to repopulate itself will not long last. And depending on foreigners to make it work is not very helpful.
However, this is more than just a political problem. One can explore economic and other reasons as to why we are having fewer and fewer children. But it is ultimately a spiritual problem. Do we have a will to live? A country that tires of reproducing itself, a country that tires of people, is not just in demographic decline but spiritual decline.
A few quotes from the important 2011 book, How Civilizations Die, by David Goldman are worth presenting here:
“A good deal of the world seems to have lost the taste for life…. The industrial world’s lowest fertility rates are encountered among the nations of Eastern Europe where atheism was the official ideology for generations. The highest fertility rates in the developed world are found in countries with a high degree of religious faith, namely the United States and Israel.”
“The members of sick cultures … cease to have children.”
“A good deal of the world seems to have lost the taste for life . . . Today’s cultures are dying of apathy, not by the swords of their enemies.”
“The truth is that humankind cannot survive without faith, specifically faith that our lives have meaning beyond the mere span of our years. Civilizations that lose their faith also lose their desire to continue and fail to reproduce themselves.”
“Abnegation of child-rearing is the ultimate expression of nihilism.”
“People stop having children when they lose faith in their future.”
